Global Economy

As AI-related tech stocks plunged, investors flocked to safe-haven assets, pushing the US 10-year Treasury yield below 5% for the first time in a month.

Original headline: 美국채 10년물 금리 한달 만에 5% 아래로…안전자산 쏠림

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According to Japan's Statistics Bureau, core consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 2.1% year on year in September, up from 1.7% in August and above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Government subsidies on fuel costs blunted the direct impact of soaring global oil prices.

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On the 22nd, the Nikkei 225 index fell 2.40% on the Tokyo stock market, hitting its lowest level in a month. Decliners numbered 2,092, outnumbering advancers (1,404), and Ibiden plunged 9.49%.

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European stocks weakened on the 22nd as French government bond yields topped 5%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was trading down 0.8%.

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According to the US Labor Department, initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17 fell by 6,000 from the previous week to 194,000, the lowest since July. Layoffs remain rare, and claims this year have stayed at historically low levels.

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Procter & Gamble (P&G) reported fiscal first-quarter results that beat market expectations. Sales rose 4% on higher sales of laundry detergent and household products.

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Lockheed Martin's third-quarter sales were $20.7 billion, up from $18.6 billion a year earlier, and net income was $1.8 billion ($7.97 per share). Its backlog hit a record $292 billion, and the company raised its 2026 outlook.

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International oil prices rose to a five-month high as attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and attacks targeting Saudi Arabian facilities heightened fears of disruptions to global crude supply.

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On the 22nd, selling in Asian stock markets intensified amid rising oil prices, with tech stocks leading the decline, and China's CSI 300 index entered a bear market. Bitcoin also slipped to around $82,000.

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Gold prices fell more than 1% on the 22nd, as a surge in oil prices heightened inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that interest rates will remain high for longer.

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On the 22nd, the Dow was nearly flat on Wall Street, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.6% on a decline in chip stocks. Meta plunged nearly 7% after announcing quarterly results and a 2-for-1 stock split.

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On the 22nd, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 1.05% to close at 637.74, its biggest drop in three weeks. The euro zone bank index plunged 4.2%, its worst day since March, as rising oil prices and a surge in French government bond yields dampened investor sentiment.

Original headline: 유럽증시 3주 만에 최대 낙폭…은행주 급락

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On the 21st, the KOSPI rose 182.92 points (3.29%) to close at 5,735.66, reclaiming the 5,700 level. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each rose more than 5% on a US earnings-driven rally and easing concerns about AI profitability, while foreign investors were net buyers of 660 billion won. The index soared as high as around 5,816 intraday, triggering the year's 25th buy sidecar, and the KOSDAQ rose 1.38% to finish at 792.76. On the same day, the Nikkei rose 0.9% to 64,621.24, while the Hang Seng fell 0.7%.

Original headline: [스팟] 코스피 182.92포인트(3.29%) 오른 5735.66 마감

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Japan's Ministry of Finance announced on the 21st that September exports rose 16.7% year on year, increasing for a 13th consecutive month. However, this fell short of market expectations (20–21%). Semiconductor exports rose 49.4%, chipmaking equipment 43.9% and automobiles 15.1%, while exports to the US increased 22.9%. Imports rose 18.9%, and the trade deficit narrowed to 536.6 billion yen from the previous month (1.1 trillion yen).

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On the 21st, Bitcoin traded around $82,600, moving in a range of $81,273 to $83,249 overnight. Spot ETFs saw inflows of $526.7 million, but the price is about 34% below its all-time high ($126,080) set last October. With the US CPI release and the FOMC meeting scheduled within ten days, the market is in wait-and-see mode.

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On the 21st, Brent crude rose about 1.5% to around $110 a barrel, while WTI traded in the $99 range. Prices were lifted after the speaker of Iran's parliament said Iran would not trust the US until Hormuz conditions were met, and American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed continued declines in crude and petroleum product inventories.

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On the 21st, the US 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.12% and the 2-year yield around 4.79%, with little change. Investors are awaiting mortgage rates and employment data ahead of the Fed meeting on October 28.

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On the morning of the 21st, European stock markets were little changed as investors awaited US tech earnings. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% after UK consumer price inflation rose to 3.5% in September, while EssilorLuxottica surged more than 11% after third-quarter sales beat expectations.

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SpaceX's third-quarter revenue rose 161% from a year earlier to $14.58 billion, far exceeding expectations, and it swung to a net profit of $4.4 billion. Musk said SpaceX and Tesla had formed a special committee to consider a merger, but stressed that nothing had been finalized.

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On the 21st, before the US market opened, tech stocks were strong, with Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.5%. SpaceX's strong results boosted investor sentiment, and the market is awaiting Tesla's and Meta's third-quarter results due after the close.

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Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is considering strengthening taxes on gains from short-term real estate trading. In fiscal 2025, the average price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo's 23 wards was 137.84 million yen (about 1.1675 billion won), up 18.5% from the previous year. The measure aims to curb speculative transactions after home prices doubled over the past decade.

Original headline: 도쿄 집값 10년새 두 배…日도 투기성 거래 세금 더 물린다

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AT&T's third-quarter revenue rose 5.3% to $32.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.65 beat market expectations. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to around $2.40, but its shares fell 4.6% before the market opened as net additions of postpaid phone subscribers fell short of expectations.

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According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) for the week ending October 16 fell by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week to 412.5 million barrels. That is 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

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On the 21st, the Dow rose 360.21 points (0.69%) to close at 52,856.09. The S&P 500 gained about 0.5% and the Nasdaq about 1%. Tech stocks led the rebound, and SpaceX, which reported its first results since going public, surged nearly 8%.

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Tesla's third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $0.48, beating market expectations ($0.43), and revenue also exceeded expectations. However, revenue from its automotive segment declined.

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IBM's third-quarter revenue rose 5% to $17.1 billion. Software revenue grew 8% to about $7.8 billion, driving results; within it, the data segment rose 19% and hybrid cloud, including Red Hat, rose 11%. Consulting revenue was flat at $5.3 billion.

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Southwest Airlines' third-quarter operating revenue rose 21.2% to $8.4 billion, a quarterly record. Net income was $270 million ($0.55 per share), and adjusted net income was $328 million ($0.66 per share). The company said strong revenue improved its margin compared with a year earlier.

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On the 21st, China's large-cap CSI 300 index fell 1% to its lowest level since August 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% to close at 3,713.03. Expectations for additional stimulus faded after third-quarter growth came in solid at 4.5% and the loan prime rate was held steady.

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Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said underlying inflation has almost reached the central bank's 2% target and that financial conditions remain accommodative.

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France's 10-year government bond yield briefly topped 5% intraday on the 21st, reaching that level for the first time since 2002. Prime Minister Lecornu's government is pushing for €54 billion in spending cuts in the 2027 budget, but there are strong concerns that a divided parliament will make agreement difficult.

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On the 20th, the Dow rose 529.85 points (1.02%) to close at 52,495.88, a one-month high, while the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,712.57 and the Nasdaq fell 0.02% to 26,424.82. Strong earnings and lower oil prices supported investor sentiment, but AI-related tech stocks were weak. 3M rose more than 5% on strong results and a raised annual guidance, leading the Dow's gains.

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On the 20th, Netflix reported third-quarter revenue of $12.87 billion (up 12% year on year), earnings per share of $0.87 (versus an expected $0.82) and an operating margin of 34.6%. However, it lowered its 2026 advertising revenue forecast from $3 billion to $2.7 billion and announced about 1,000 job cuts, or 6% of its total workforce, sending its shares lower in after-hours trading. Its annual revenue forecast is $51.1 billion.

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On the 20th, Brent crude hit $111.99 a barrel intraday, a five-month high, before closing down 0.69% at $108.79 on unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Pakistan were pushing a proposal to resume US-Iran negotiations. Tanker attacks and mine incidents around Hormuz, along with Houthi threats to attack Saudi energy facilities, raised the risk premium, while Trump's suspension of Russia sanctions also acted as a supply factor. During Asian hours on the 21st, it rebounded to around $110.

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On the 20th, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 3bp from the previous day to 5.12%, while the 30-year yield was 5.42%, the 2-year 4.79% and the 1-month 4.10%. Long-term yields edged down as oil prices retreated from their highs and expectations of an October Fed rate hike weakened. Mortgage rates were little changed.

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On the 20th, European stocks recovered most of their intraday losses thanks to falling oil prices, but the STOXX 600 closed down 0.1% at 638.64. France's CAC 40 fell 0.4% to 7,838.49 on concerns over unrest and political instability, underperforming other markets. Weakness in global tech and AI stocks and the spread of cost-of-living protests also weighed.

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On the 20th, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, holding them steady for a 17th consecutive month. All 22 institutions in a Reuters survey had expected a hold, and the decision is seen as a signal that the central bank will not rush to ease after third-quarter growth of 4.5% beat expectations. The PBOC is moving toward using the seven-day reverse repo rate as its key policy rate and diversifying lending benchmark rates.

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Tesla will report third-quarter results after the US market closes on the 21st. The market expects earnings per share of about $0.45 and revenue of about $27.9 billion, slightly lower than the same period last year ($0.50 and $28.1 billion). Tesla delivered more than 486,000 vehicles this quarter.

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China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on the 19th that third-quarter GDP grew 4.5% year on year. The figure beat the Reuters forecast of 4.4% and rebounded from 4.3% in the second quarter, the lowest in more than three years; cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 4.6%. Exports of technology products supported growth, while retail sales growth was just 1.1% and real estate and fixed-asset investment declined, as weak domestic demand persisted.

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In Asian trading on the 19th, Brent crude fell about 2% to the $107 range per barrel, and WTI dropped to around $100. On the 16th, Brent had closed at $109.86, its highest since May. Expectations of increased supply grew with President Trump's waiver of the Graham Act and a Russian diesel import deal, but continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz limited the decline.

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On the 19th, the KOSPI opened down 3.17% at 5,488.41 on AI bubble concerns and news of a Chinese chipmaker unveiling its technology, but closed up 1.76% at 5,768.01 as institutional buying (about 576 billion won) flowed in on the view that the sell-off was overdone. It was the second straight day of gains, and the KOSDAQ also rose 1.78% to 808.89, reclaiming the 800 level. Individuals and foreigners were net sellers.

Original headline: [속보] 코스피, 99.96포인트(1.76%) 오른 5768.01 마감

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Ahead of weekend violent protests and a vote on the 2027 budget, France's 10-year government bond yield rose to 4.84–4.89% on the 19th, and the spread over German Bunds widened to the mid-140bp range, nearing its highest level since the euro zone debt crisis. French bank stocks and the CAC 40 also fell. Moody's credit rating review on the 23rd and a general strike on November 5 are seen as the next variables.

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On the 19th, December gold opened at $4,185 an ounce and edged up to around $4,190, while spot gold traded around $4,170. A slight decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield to around 5.08% and fading expectations of an October Fed rate hike supported gold prices. However, gold is down about 4% over the past month.

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Nasdaq 100 futures, which plunged 5.5% last week, rebounded 1% before the open on the 19th, and S&P 500 futures also rose 0.5%. On the 16th, the S&P 500 closed down 1.1% at 7,659 and the Nasdaq down 2.1% at 26,140, giving the Nasdaq its worst week since late June. This week, earnings from Netflix (20th) and Tesla and Meta (21st) will test the enthusiasm for AI investment.

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The IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, held in Bangkok from October 12 to 18, have concluded. Representatives from 191 member countries attended the meetings, the first held in Bangkok since 1991, and Thailand's Finance Ministry said registrations exceeded 19,000, the most ever. Through the 'Bangkok Dialogue Notes,' a host document rather than a negotiated outcome, Thailand summarized five takeaways, including people-centered resilience.

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On the 19th, Bitcoin traded between $82,400 and $83,000, up 1–2% over 24 hours. Analysts say the daily Bollinger Band width has narrowed to its tightest in 2.5 years, indicating a compression phase ahead of a large directional move. It remains well below its October 2025 peak of about $126,000.

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On the 19th, Asian stock markets got off to a weak start in the wake of last Friday's tech-led sell-off on Wall Street (S&P 500 -1.1%, Nasdaq -2.1%). Japan's Nikkei 225 closed around the 64,500 level, down about 1.2%, on weakness in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, while the Hong Kong market was closed. Australia's ASX 200 closed up 0.4%, supported by energy stocks and merger news, and oil prices slipped slightly from around $110 a barrel.

Original headline: ASX opens higher, Ampol refining margins double as oil slips from $US110/barrel — as it happened

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On Monday the 19th, the STOXX 600 index closed down 0.82% in Europe, while France's CAC 40 fell 1.35%, the biggest drop, after weekend cost-of-living protests turned violent. France's 10-year government bond yield rose about 10bp to around 4.89%, and its spread over Germany widened to 146bp. Brent crude fell more than 1% to around $108 a barrel, while WTI traded around $101.

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On the 19th, the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1bp to 5.09%, and the 30-year yield dropped to 5.432%. This came as oil prices retreated following Trump's Russia sanctions waiver, weakening expectations of further Fed rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark rate to 3.75–4.00% in September, and the next FOMC meeting is on October 27–28, with the Fed currently in its blackout period.

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On the 19th, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 opened higher on Wall Street as AI-related stocks that plunged last week rebounded, while the Dow was slightly weaker. Shortly after the open, the Nasdaq was up about 1.1% and the S&P 500 about 0.6%, and CoreWeave, which plunged more than 25% last week, rebounded 6.6% in premarket trading. Big Tech earnings, including Netflix, SpaceX, Tesla and Meta, are scheduled this week.

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On the 19th, Asian stock markets were mixed in the wake of last Friday's sharp drop in Wall Street tech stocks. Tokyo's Nikkei opened weak and declined, Seoul's KOSPI rebounded 1.7–1.8%, and Shanghai rose 0.4%. Hong Kong was closed, and oil prices around $110 a barrel and this week's Big Tech earnings were cited as key variables.

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Following violent weekend protests, the yield gap between France's 10-year government bond (OAT) and the German Bund widened to about 145bp on the morning of the 19th, nearing its October high, and France's 10-year yield, at 4.84–4.86%, approached its highest level since 2002 (4.989%). French yields are now higher than those of Italy and Greece, and Moody's is scheduled to review France's credit rating on October 23.

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On the 19th, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Wall Street as last week's AI-related selling subsided, and the Dow, which was weak early in the session, also turned higher. A rebound in chip stocks led the Nasdaq, with the S&P 500 rising to around 7,727 (+0.89%) and the Nasdaq to around 26,592 intraday. The 10-year US Treasury yield was about 5.07%, roughly 29bp below its October 7 high, and the market is watching earnings from Netflix (20th) and Meta and Tesla (21st).

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Meta shares traded around $696 on the 19th, down 1.8% intraday. Analysts attributed the decline to a combination of profit-taking ahead of its third-quarter results due after the close on the 21st, concerns that AI capital spending will squeeze free cash flow, and recent analyst price-target cuts. Meta also fell 3.7% on the 16th on analyst downgrades and AI spending concerns, and is trading well below its 52-week high (about $779).

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The Fed entered its blackout period on the 17th, suspending public remarks ahead of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Chair Warsh mentioned a global 'synchronized tightening' in a speech in Bangkok on the 16th but did not signal whether rates would rise in October. The bond market puts the probability of an October hold at about 80% and is pricing in a likely hike on December 9, while consumer price inflation has risen to 3.7% since the September hike.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on NBC's 'Meet the Press' on the 18th that the 3.7% rise in consumer prices in September was caused by an energy shock stemming from the Iran conflict. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of the monthly price increase, and he said prices would come down once the Iran situation passes. The host pushed back, noting that core inflation does not include energy; the midterm elections are on November 3, 16 days away.

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On October 16, China's Ministry of Commerce issued a draft of export controls on 40 technologies, including 23 AI technologies such as large models with 2 trillion or more parameters, AI agents, chip design and computing clusters, and immediately implemented a temporary registration system. Observers said the trade truce extended during Xi Jinping's US visit was being shaken after just three weeks. The deeper the US-China technology bloc division becomes, the harder the choices will be for Korean IT companies entangled in Chinese supply chains.

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On October 16, the S&P 500 closed down 1.09% at 7,659 and the Nasdaq down 2.14% at 26,140, falling about 2% and more than 4% for the week, respectively, with the Nasdaq posting its worst week since June. The decline reflected a combination of AI infrastructure debt concerns, 3.7% inflation, Brent crude touching $110 and Treasury yields above 5%, and the VIX jumped to its highest since June. Ahead of the October 28 FOMC meeting and China's third-quarter GDP release, global investors' risk aversion became pronounced.

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With the shock of the US September CPI and concerns over AI infrastructure debt (CoreWeave's plunge) combined, on October 15 the KOSPI fell 454 points (7.57%) to close at 5,554 and the KOSDAQ fell 7.65% to 760, with circuit breakers triggered in both markets. Semiconductors led the decline, with Samsung Electronics down 9.5% and SK Hynix down 11%, and foreign investors sold more than 3.6 trillion won. The Nikkei also plunged 4.9%, spreading into a global chip sell-off, and the KOSPI's weekly drop was the largest since 2008.

Original headline: '검은 목요일'...코스피·코스닥 폭락

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Yields on AI cloud company CoreWeave's bonds maturing in 2031 topped 16%, and its five-year CDS spread soared above 1,100bp, to a level at which the market sees the probability of default within five years at around 60%. Doubts about the business model of building AI data centers with more than $50 billion in debt led to sharp declines across AI-related stocks, including Oracle and Dell. The debate over an 'AI boom built on debt' is also behind the sharp fall in Korean chip stocks.

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September consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% forecast, and core CPI also rebounded to 2.6%. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1%, accounting for half of the increase, showing that the Iran war is feeding directly into prices. The probability of an October FOMC hike rose again and Treasury yields jumped, triggering the plunge in Korean and Japanese stock markets the next day.

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China's September exports rose 36.3% year on year, far exceeding the 25.5% forecast, imports increased 31%, and the monthly trade surplus hit a record $133.5 billion. Semiconductor exports surged 108% in January–September and auto exports rose 56%, driven by AI demand and a rush of shipments to the EU. The cumulative January–September surplus of $938.1 billion heightens pressure from Europe to rebalance trade and means intensifying competition for Korean exporters.

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As Iranian attacks on ships in Hormuz surged, with more than six tankers attacked on October 11 alone, tanker traffic fell to its lowest since late July and Brent crude topped $106. Iranian officials said they would intensify attacks with new tactics, heightening concerns of a prolonged situation. For Korea, which relies heavily on Gulf crude, diversification of import sources and management of oil reserves are being put to the test again.

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The Fed's October Beige Book assessed that US economic activity grew weakly or modestly. Only two of the 12 districts reported 'moderate' growth, and three saw little change. Consumer spending stalled in most districts, and more than half said spending was being driven by high-income households.

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In its October World Economic Outlook released at the Annual Meetings in Bangkok, the IMF projected 2026 global growth at 3.1%, 0.1 percentage point higher than in July, and 3.4% for 2027, and forecast global inflation at 4.7%. It warned that while the AI investment boom offset the shock of the Middle East war, 95% of growth is concentrated in 32 countries, widening disparities. Korea's forecast was raised by 0.7 percentage point to 3.3% thanks to chip demand, but a key variable is that the outlook assumes 'the reopening of Hormuz next March.'

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With news of China's CXMT catching up in memory and comments on AI demand by Broadcom executives coinciding, the KOSPI slid more than 7% intraday on October 13 before closing down 5.46% at 6,035, threatening the 6,000 level. Foreign selling poured in, sending Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix sharply lower, and the selling spread to US memory stocks. Down more than 20% from its September peak, the KOSPI has effectively entered a bear market.

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After a record 10 tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz during the week of September 28 to October 4, Brent crude rose 4.8% in a single day to close at $105. A hurricane threat to the US Gulf of Mexico and the fading of expectations for reserve releases also played a part. For Korea, a crude importer, this is an across-the-board burden on prices, the trade balance and airline fuel costs, and it was a direct cause of the surge in the US September CPI.

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The US 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.3% in early October, rising to its highest since 2002. It has jumped more than 90bp this year, the result of the Fed's shift to rate hikes, a reacceleration of inflation driven by surging oil prices and concerns over the fiscal deficit. When the benchmark for global long-term rates rises, Korean government bond and lending rates as well as growth-stock valuations all come under pressure.

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According to Eurostat's flash estimate, euro zone consumer prices rose 3.8% year on year in September, up sharply from 3.2% in August and the highest since September 2023. The biggest factor was a 18.8% surge in energy prices, and core inflation also rose to 2.5%. The figure adds pressure for a further hike at the ECB meeting on October 29, and slowing European demand is also a burden on Korea's exports to Europe.

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September nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000, far below the forecast of 84,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. July was revised to a decline of 10,000 and August down to 133,000, and hourly wage growth of 3.0% was the lowest since 2021. As the last jobs report before the midterm elections, it led the market to begin pricing in a high probability of a hold at the October FOMC meeting.

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The Fed's preferred August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.4% year on year, and the core index 3.0%, below forecasts of 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, and the July figures were also revised down. Coming right after the September hike, the data raised hopes that the pace of further hikes could slow. However, inflation remains far from the 2% target, so the outlook for higher-for-longer rates was maintained.

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During President Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington on September 23–25, the US and China agreed to extend their trade truce, which was set to expire on November 10, to January 10, 2027, and to lower tariffs on about $30 billion worth of 'non-core' goods, including agricultural products and energy. However, this fell short for a market that had hoped for an extension of six months or more, and there was no agreement on issues such as AI and Iran. For Korean exporters caught between the US and China, it meant little more than a breather.

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On September 18, the Bank of Japan voted 7–2 to raise its short-term policy rate from 1.0% to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995. The additional hike came three months after the June increase, citing the risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target and rising inflation expectations. The unwinding of the yen carry trade and rising Japanese government bond yields are sources of volatility for Asian financial markets, including Korea.

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On September 16, the Fed voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00%. In the first hike since 2023, Chair Warsh said the Fed had 'removed some of the accommodation' and that inflation had been too high for too long, and the dot plot signaled further hikes within the year. The White House pushed back, but the market priced in further hikes, putting direct pressure on the Bank of Korea's room to cut rates and on the won exchange rate.

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On September 10, the European Central Bank unanimously raised its three key policy rates by 0.25 percentage point, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%. It cited the shock of the Middle East war, with euro zone inflation at 3.3% and energy inflation at 14.3% in August, but did not commit to a future path, saying it would decide 'meeting by meeting based on data.' It was one pillar of a resumption of global tightening, with the US, Europe and Japan all raising rates in the same month.

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The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.7% in the first week of September to its lowest since May, while the yen rose to a one-month high amid expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and wariness about intervention. A temporary retreat in bets on Fed rate hikes also played a part. The dollar's weakness gave some breathing room to the won exchange rate and foreign capital inflows.

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The US House passed the stopgap spending bill sent by the Senate by a vote of 370 to 48, averting a federal government shutdown that had been feared with the start of the new fiscal year on October 1. It was a relief for markets that had gone through a 43-day shutdown last year, but the next deadline has merely been pushed back to December 11, after the midterm elections. US fiscal risk also affects capital flows to emerging markets through Treasury yields and the dollar.

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Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that its foreign exchange interventions from July 30 to August 26 totaled 15.3993 trillion yen, a monthly record. Cumulative interventions this year have exceeded 27 trillion yen, already surpassing the 2024 annual record (about 15 trillion yen). As the yen weakened again despite the massive intervention, pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates grew, and unease spread across Asian currencies.

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In his first Jackson Hole keynote since taking office, Chair Kevin Warsh said that even if summer inflation data had improved, the underlying trend had not changed, leaving the door open to a rate hike, and he offered no forward guidance. Immediately after the speech, the probability of a September hike jumped from one-third to 56%, and Treasury yields and the dollar rose. A US shift to rate hikes is a factor that narrows Korea's room to manage interest rates and the exchange rate.

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Nvidia's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2027 was $96.2 billion, more than double a year earlier, and its forecast of 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028 far exceeded market expectations (44%). Its shares rose more than 8% in a single day, confirming that the AI investment cycle is still alive. The results were directly relevant to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which supply HBM to Nvidia, and to Korean chip investors.

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A 50% tariff on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, invoking Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 for the first time in 77 years, took effect on August 22, and Prime Minister Carney announced retaliatory tariffs of the same scale starting September 8. Two days later, President Trump added that he would raise tariffs on Canadian autos and steel to 50% from 2027. As the entire North American supply chain was shaken, Korean auto and battery companies with plants in Canada also grew tense.

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July consumer prices rose 0.1% from the previous month and 3.4% from a year earlier, slowing slightly from 3.5% in June, and core CPI was 2.5%. However, energy prices were 14.7% higher and gasoline 24.6% higher than a year earlier, as the shadow of the Iran war lingered. The market lowered the probability of a September rate hike, but the structure of inflation running well above target remained unchanged.

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July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, shocking a market that had expected an increase in the 80,000 range, and the May–June figures were also revised down by more than 100,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, but this was due to an increase in people giving up looking for work, and wage growth was the lowest in five years. The dilemma of slowing employment amid high inflation intensified market debate over whether the Fed would hike in September.

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Finance Minister Katayama and Secretary Bessent confirmed that Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury jointly bought yen on July 31 to stem the yen's weakness, which had driven it as low as 164 per dollar. It was the first time in about 28 years that the US joined in defending Japan's currency, and the yen rebounded sharply to the 155 range. The event affects both the price competitiveness of Korean exporters that had benefited from the weak yen and yen investors.

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The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of second-quarter GDP was an annualized 1.5%, below both the first quarter's 2.1% and the market forecast of 2.1%. Lower government spending and slowing investment and exports were the causes, and quarterly PCE prices rose as much as 5.1%, heightening concerns about 'low growth and high inflation.' It was later revised up to 2.2% in the final estimate, but at the time the data further complicated the Fed's tightening burden.

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At its July 28–29 meeting, the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth straight time, but three regional Fed presidents, Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, dissented, calling for a 0.25 percentage point hike. This effectively made official the internal dissatisfaction over inflation running above the 2% target for more than five years. It later foreshadowed the September hike, and tightening pressure was transmitted to Korean interest rates and the exchange rate as well.

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After plunging 10.84% on July 28, the KOSPI fell further on the 29th, triggering circuit breakers for two consecutive days. With Chinese memory makers catching up, doubts over returns on AI investment and selling from leveraged ETFs combined, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunged by double digits. The extreme volatility, with the index falling more than 30% in a month before rebounding 17.9% on the 31st, shook individual investors.

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On July 23, the European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.25%, deciding to watch the impact of the Iran war on inflation. Some members argued for an immediate hike, and President Lagarde laid the groundwork for a September hike. It was a signal that the energy shock could spill over into a European rate-hike cycle.

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As President Trump declared that the April ceasefire and the June memorandum of understanding were effectively over and resumed airstrikes on Iran, Brent crude jumped more than 5% to the $78 range, and major European stock markets fell more than 2%. It marked a turning point at which oil prices, which had fallen back to pre-war levels, rebounded again. Korea, which is highly dependent on crude imports, came under pressure on both prices and its trade balance.

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At the joint review on July 1, the Office of the US Trade Representative did not agree to renew the North American free trade agreement (USMCA), leaving the agreement in a 'non-renewed' state subject to annual review. The agreement itself remains in effect, but uncertainty over North American supply chains increased, and it later became a precursor to high tariffs on Canada. It is also a direct variable for Korean auto and parts companies with production bases in Mexico and Canada.

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With concerns over soaring AI infrastructure investment costs, reports of a delay in OpenAI's IPO and the possibility of a Fed rate hike combined, the Nasdaq plunged on June 23, and memory and storage stocks such as Micron and SanDisk fell more than 10%. Doubts grew over the profitability of the four Big Tech companies' 2026 capital spending, which exceeded $450 billion. The event brought the 'AI cycle peak' debate to the Korean stock market, which has a large weighting in memory chips, and to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics investors.

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At the first FOMC meeting chaired by new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed unanimously held rates at 3.50–3.75%, but significantly shortened its statement and deleted language indicating an easing bias. The median projection for the end-2026 rate rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, signaling a hike within the year, and Chair Warsh announced Fed reforms through five task forces covering areas such as communication and the balance sheet. The signal that US rates could rise again is a burden on Korean interest rates, the exchange rate and stocks alike.

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The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1%, returning it to the highest level since 1995. The decision was made by a 7–1 vote against the backdrop of the yen's weakness and war-driven increases in energy prices, and the BOJ also decided to continue reducing its government bond purchases. Concerns about an unwinding of the yen carry trade and the possibility of a yen rebound are variables that directly affect the Korean stock market, the won-yen exchange rate and the cost of travel to Japan.

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Brent crude plunged 5% to close at $78.96 on reports that the US and Iran had agreed on a memorandum of understanding covering an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that the US would allow Iran to sell oil for 60 days. It was the first time since March that Brent fell below $80, and the Nikkei and KOSPI hit record highs. However, volatility remained, as the text of the agreement was not released and President Trump warned that he 'could bomb again.'

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The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate from 2% to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023. President Lagarde said war-driven inflation was spreading beyond energy, raising the inflation outlook and lowering the growth outlook, and said the ECB would not commit in advance to a specific rate path. As the first major central bank to raise rates in response to the Iran war, it signaled that global monetary policy was changing direction from 'cuts' to 'hikes.'

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In its June Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5%, the lowest figure since the COVID-19 pandemic. It cut its forecasts for two-thirds of all countries due to the Middle East war, and warned that growth could fall to 2.1% if energy disruptions worsen and oil prices average $115, and to 1.3% if financial turmoil spreads. Per capita income growth in emerging economies is the lowest since the pandemic, foreshadowing slowing demand in Korea's export markets.

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The Nikkei 225 rose 2.5% to close at 68,402, topping the 68,000 level for the first time ever, and the TOPIX also broke through 4,000 intraday. AI chip equipment stocks led the gains, with Tokyo Electron soaring 13.4% and Advantest jumping 5%. It was a period when Korea's KOSPI, riding the same AI chip cycle, was also continuing to set new highs, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

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As Iranian state TV reported that Iran had agreed on a draft memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the US and a ceasefire extension awaited President Trump's approval, oil prices gave up their gains and turned lower. It was the first time that negotiations, stalled over the Strait of Hormuz issue since the April ceasefire, reached the stage of a concrete document. Since the direction of oil prices feeds directly into Korea's inflation and interest rate outlook, the domestic market also reacted sensitively to news of the negotiations.

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During President Trump's visit to Beijing, which had been delayed for more than a month by the Iran war, China pledged to buy US agricultural products and Boeing aircraft and to reopen its markets to beef and poultry, and the two countries agreed to establish a trade council and an investment council. However, an extension of the tariff truce from the October 2025 Busan agreement was not specified, and rare earth export controls also remained unresolved. Korea is one of the countries most sensitive to supply chain realignment and tariff changes between the US and China.

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The S&P 500 closed at 7,501.24, topping the 7,500 level for the first time ever, and the Dow also reclaimed the 50,000 level. The US stock market, which at one point in March had fallen more than 7% from the start of the year due to the war and the oil shock, returned to record highs in just over two months, buoyed by ceasefire hopes and AI earnings. For Korean retail investors in overseas stocks with large holdings of US stocks and ETFs, it was a time of large valuation gains, further boosted by the strong dollar.

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The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Fed chair by a vote of 54 to 45. Only Senator Fetterman voted in favor among Democrats, making it the most partisan vote in the history of Fed chair confirmations, and the path opened only after the Justice Department's investigation into Chair Powell was dropped. The rate decisions of the new chair, who takes office amid controversy over Fed independence, are the biggest external variable for Korean interest rates and the exchange rate.

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On reports that US Central Command would brief President Trump on plans for military action against Iran, Brent crude soared to $126 intraday, its highest since the war began, before slipping to $114. President Trump's statement that he would maintain the naval blockade until a nuclear deal is reached also added to the unease. Oil prices, nearly double their level at the start of the year, were a key variable that shook Korea's inflation, trade balance and the outlook for the refining and airline industries.

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The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% for a third straight meeting, but the vote was split 8–4. Governor Miran called for a cut, while Presidents Hammack, Logan and Kashkari called for removing the easing-bias language from the statement, producing the most dissents since 1992. It was the last meeting under Chair Powell, revealing internal rifts at the Fed between oil-driven inflation and slowing employment.

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Brent crude rose again to around $107 as Iran held firm on its closure of the Strait of Hormuz even during the ceasefire and accused the US of undermining trust. The US countered with a naval blockade of Iranian ports from April 13, and traffic through the strait remained at a tiny fraction of normal levels. As long as the chokepoint through which 20% of global oil trade passes remained blocked, unease over oil prices, inflation and shipping costs was bound to continue.

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On April 23, the Nikkei 225 topped the 60,000 level intraday for the first time, setting a record high. It came just over two months after breaking 57,000 in February, as the weak yen, AI chip demand and hopes for a Middle East ceasefire converged. With a growing number of Korean individuals investing in Japanese stocks and ETFs, whether to hedge currency risk, as the yen exchange rate and share prices moved in opposite directions, determined returns.

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China's first-quarter GDP grew 5.0% year on year, faster than in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4.5%) and above market expectations. Growth was driven by a 6.1% increase in industrial production and record exports, but retail sales rose only 2.4%, as weak domestic demand persisted. With energy costs up due to the Middle East war and the US tariff variable still in play, the assessment is that it is too early to be optimistic about a recovery in Korea's exports to China.

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In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, 0.2 percentage point lower than in January, and projected global inflation at 4.4%. This assumes that the Middle East war ends in a limited way, and it warned of 2.5% growth and 5.4% inflation in a pessimistic scenario in which the energy shock is prolonged. Korea, which is highly dependent on trade, faces both a slowdown in global growth and rising oil prices at the same time.

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US CPI for March jumped from 2.4% the previous month to 3.3%, and the monthly increase of 0.9% was the largest since June 2022. Gasoline prices rose 21.2% in a single month, the largest monthly increase since records began in 1967, accounting for three-quarters of the overall increase. Core inflation was calm at 2.6%, but the energy-driven inflation shock effectively eliminated the Fed's room to cut rates.

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When President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, WTI fell more than 16% to below $100, and the Dow rose 1,325 points, its biggest percentage gain in a year. The KOSPI jumped more than 5% and the Nikkei 4%. However, with unease lingering, including Iranian claims that the US had violated the ceasefire, assessments followed that the relief rally was fragile.

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Brent crude rose about 55% in March, the largest monthly gain since futures were listed in 1988, and WTI also settled above $100 for the first time since 2022. The Hormuz blockade combined with attacks by Yemen's Houthis maximized supply fears. It was the starting point of a burden that weighed throughout the second quarter on Korean consumer prices, the trade balance and the earnings of the airline and chemical industries.

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As the yen approached 160 per dollar due to war-driven dollar strength and surging oil prices, Finance Minister Katayama mentioned 'bold action,' signaling intervention in the foreign exchange market. The yen weakened past 160 in early April, after which Japan carried out actual intervention on a record scale. A deepening weak yen is a variable affecting Korea's export competitiveness, the value of the won, and travelers to Japan and investors in yen deposits alike.

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The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2%, warning that the Iran war had made the outlook 'significantly more uncertain,' and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%. President Lagarde said the ECB could raise rates if necessary even if the energy shock is temporary, prompting markets to increase bets on a hike within the year. A slowing euro zone economy and a weaker euro affect Korea's exports to Europe and the returns of European funds.

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The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% for a second straight meeting and stated explicitly that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy is uncertain. It raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, and the dot plot left only one cut for the year. Governor Miran alone argued for a cut, and some members preferred two-way language saying a hike was also possible if inflation stayed high.

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At the National People's Congress, China lowered its 2026 growth target from 'around 5%,' which it had set for three consecutive years, to a range of '4.5–5%.' It emphasized quality over quantity in the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, but it is seen as a realistic downgrade mindful of the property slump and the energy shock from the Middle East war. As its largest trading partner lowers its growth expectations, an impact on Korea's exports to China and its intermediate goods industries is inevitable.

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Member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) unanimously agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil reserves in response to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war. It is the sixth joint release, following those in 1991, 2011 and 2022, among others, and Korea also participated with an allocation of about 22.46 million barrels. However, Executive Director Birol stressed that stability would be difficult without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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With traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked and Iraq and Kuwait cutting output, oil prices soared about 20% in a single day on March 9, and Brent crude topped $100 for the first time since July 2022. The Korean stock market plunged and the won-dollar exchange rate surged. For Korea, which imports all of its crude oil, it is a classic supply shock that deals a direct blow to gasoline prices, inflation and the trade balance.

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US nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, defying expectations of a 50,000 increase, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. A healthcare strike and severe cold also played a role, but it was the third decline in five months, heightening concerns about a slowing labor market. With employment faltering as the war drives up prices, the 'stagflation' dilemma, in which it is difficult for the Fed either to raise or cut rates, came to the fore.

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On the first trading day after the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, oil prices surged, airline and travel stocks plunged, and European stock markets and the Nikkei also fell. US stocks recovered most of their intraday losses, but Treasuries failed to act as a safe haven due to inflation concerns. It was the day 'war risk' began to be fully reflected in the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on crude imports, and in the KOSPI.

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The US Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not give the president the authority to impose tariffs, invalidating all of them, including the 2025 'Liberation Day' reciprocal tariffs. The issue of refunding more than $200 billion in existing tariffs was sent to the lower courts. For exporting countries such as Korea, tariff uncertainty seemed to be resolved, but replacement tariffs came immediately, so the relief did not last long.

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On the day of the Supreme Court ruling, President Trump signed a proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on all countries for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the next day signaled he would raise it to 15%. Agricultural products, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, some electronics and passenger cars were exempted. With only the legal basis changing and the tariff burden continuing, the pressure on Korean exporters and the exchange rate remained.

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The day after Prime Minister Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide 316 seats in the general election, the Nikkei 225 surged 3.89%, hitting a record high of 57,337 intraday. The resolution of political uncertainty and expectations of large-scale fiscal expansion reignited the 'Takaichi trade' (weaker yen, higher stock prices, higher long-term interest rates). The weak yen weighs on the price competitiveness of Korean exporters that compete with Japan.

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On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time in 15 months and slid as low as around $60,000 intraday, about half of its October 2025 peak (about $126,000). It was the result of a combination of a correction in growth stocks, the Fed's hawkish stance and ETF outflows. The event reminded Korean individual investors with large crypto holdings of the risk of leveraged liquidations.

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President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May. Immediately after the announcement, stocks fell slightly, the dollar and Treasury yields rose, and gold and silver prices plunged on concerns over his hawkish leanings. With Fed independence and the future rate path potentially changing, it became a key variable for global asset markets.

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At its first FOMC meeting of 2026, the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75%, ending a run of three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Governors Miran and Waller dissented, arguing for further cuts, and Chair Powell assessed that inflation remains somewhat elevated. The decision served as a benchmark for gauging the Korea-US interest rate gap, the won-dollar exchange rate and the direction of domestic lending rates.

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The spot gold price topped $5,000 an ounce for the first time ever on January 25. Following a 65% surge in 2025, it rose another 15% in less than a month into the new year, with conflict between the US and its allies, weakening confidence in the dollar and central bank buying cited as the background. For Korean individuals investing in gold ETFs and the KRX gold market, it was a time of heightened volatility in returns, compounded by exchange rate movements.

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In a speech at the World Economic Forum (Davos), President Trump said he would not take Greenland by force, but repeatedly criticized European allies and emphasized tariffs and America First economic policies. It was a scene in which geopolitical risk was directly reflected in global investor sentiment and dollar and gold prices at the start of the year. Conflict between the US and Europe also comes back to exporting countries such as Korea as uncertainty in the trade environment.

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China Vanke, one of China's largest property developers, moved a step closer to a formal default as it prepared a debt restructuring plan at the request of authorities. With even a company with state-owned backing being shaken, it was taken as a signal that China's property crisis is not over. China's economic slowdown directly affects Korean exports and the returns of China-related funds and ETFs.

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